tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2451189922935051878.post3796695813172386842..comments2020-11-25T09:46:32.153+08:00Comments on 麥加文的世界 World of MECHCalvin: 美國信貸評級一談mechcalvinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05761899397775465382noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2451189922935051878.post-70778859131897533432011-08-11T13:37:24.120+08:002011-08-11T13:37:24.120+08:00countries are like men, they have their life-time....countries are like men, they have their life-time. US is at his old age while China is at his young age, China will "die" one day, but she will have different life than US.mechcalvinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05761899397775465382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2451189922935051878.post-56472534212947071692011-08-10T22:50:03.255+08:002011-08-10T22:50:03.255+08:00And about future of u.s., i think it won't ...And about future of u.s., i think it won't 'die', u.s. Got it's unique edge on tech and science manpower, should remain supremecy in these fields.<br /><br />I predict a decade later, it's situation will be similar as of japan now, still influenial, but financially it shinked a lot, like japan did 20 years ago.<br /><br />Japan relyed too much on financial means to deal wih internal economic problems.<br />Seems u.s. Is on that dead-end track......<br /><br />Just hope china won't follow their bad example, at least not for this century lolsMorpheushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03580071763141131511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2451189922935051878.post-87495848663093501042011-08-10T22:04:44.772+08:002011-08-10T22:04:44.772+08:00correct, that's why i never worry about myself...correct, that's why i never worry about myself, hahaha.mechcalvinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05761899397775465382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2451189922935051878.post-47676708574207643582011-08-10T17:22:01.219+08:002011-08-10T17:22:01.219+08:00Yes you are right for firms too large, like countr...Yes you are right for firms too large, like countries and bh.<br />But for us, we have flexibility.<br /><br />Actually this situation is just the difference of some famous big funds and our funds!<br />Our key edge is 'small but flexible'!<br /><br />And i know bh already acquiring companies with bh stocks.<br />For us, we could break the 'frame' of currency to a higher extent!Morpheushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03580071763141131511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2451189922935051878.post-64666022998489523412011-08-10T17:00:44.159+08:002011-08-10T17:00:44.159+08:00maybe you are correct, but realistic is not as sim...maybe you are correct, but realistic is not as simple as you think.<br /><br />as a country (even hk), or a very large Inc. if you hold 90 billion cash, no company's stock can absorb that amount, then you will have to diversify to 1000+ company, how you going to explain to your shareholders?<br /><br />if you buy RMB, it is not a free trade currency yet, and there is no floating RMB cash for you to buy, unless you deal with the China government directly, but why would they sell it to you?<br /><br />the best option is still US bond, and all the trading is still mainly in USD, if you hold RMB then you will run into a lot of exchange rate problem, or you work with the 2% company that decide to switch to RMB now.<br /><br />in ideal world you are correct, in reality it is impossible.mechcalvinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05761899397775465382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2451189922935051878.post-84999416597445710852011-08-10T16:03:44.956+08:002011-08-10T16:03:44.956+08:00With this so modern idea, we can try our later bus...With this so modern idea, we can try our later business payments done with stocks exchange, for example rather than i charge you some cash for future performance fee, i may just claim i will get a further certain percent of my fund.<br /><br />This will save your workload and currency exchange, while i will benefit from my fund rise ( i am very confident for that in the long run)<br /><br />See how the concept of 'money' changed? This must be something interesting to try!Morpheushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03580071763141131511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2451189922935051878.post-17640563221318773932011-08-10T15:59:37.598+08:002011-08-10T15:59:37.598+08:00And some firms are doing acquisitions with 'ex...And some firms are doing acquisitions with 'exchange tocks'.<br /><br />For wrren not concern rating, only concern internal quality, rather than keep more cash or us bonds he should keep a higher ratio of stocks and do more business acquisition with stocks involved as currency.Morpheushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03580071763141131511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2451189922935051878.post-65316524290487468782011-08-10T15:56:56.101+08:002011-08-10T15:56:56.101+08:00Yes, i know that.
But the difference of rmb and u...Yes, i know that.<br /><br />But the difference of rmb and usd is that, china, someday, can be strong enough to detach itself from the 'forced relationship' of usd.<br /><br />It's just like superior stocks underperform due to bad stocks climate, 'forced to relate itself with index' but will outperfrom after some critical point, if one is patient enough to wait.<br /><br />I think both of us agree that, 'forced relationship / control by nn natural means' can't stay long, and this is just the situation usd try to apply to the rest of currency in the world, include rmb.<br /><br />About the best currency in the world for business usage, must be 'stocks'. Of course, the general business world is not bright enough to use stocks as payment for transactions, but some firms are doing this. As evident for the term 'stocks mortgaged loan'.<br /><br />By the way, i have to admit that usd is the most popular currency in the world, but populr is not related to quality, and usually thr more popular something is, it will becme cheaper and cheper.Morpheushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03580071763141131511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2451189922935051878.post-29036240691682144202011-08-10T15:21:34.247+08:002011-08-10T15:21:34.247+08:00good point, but what is your alternative option, s...good point, but what is your alternative option, say if you have 90 billion cash? where will you put it?<br /><br />RMB? China is the biggest buyer of the US bond.mechcalvinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05761899397775465382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2451189922935051878.post-70517538169440617052011-08-10T13:32:44.458+08:002011-08-10T13:32:44.458+08:00And i know warrren got no choice, because his asse...And i know warrren got no choice, because his asset are american firms, they generate u.s. Currency.<br />But not for we, we can choose our currency. Choose wisely.Morpheushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03580071763141131511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2451189922935051878.post-16169477313518289182011-08-10T13:19:22.026+08:002011-08-10T13:19:22.026+08:00About the point 'print cash to return momey, s...About the point 'print cash to return momey, so zero defalt risk'.<br /><br />Actualy this is the key point for me to worry about u.s.future, market may be idiot in a short period of term, but it will corret itself over a long time horizon, no matter what.<br /><br />So when u.s. Keep printing money, u.s. Currency will depreciate no matter what happens, over a long enough time horizon.<br /><br />As we believe in 'value investment', we should also choose a 'value currency', a currency allow us to 'sleep well in a long time scale'Morpheushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03580071763141131511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2451189922935051878.post-13495883360289504172011-08-10T13:11:22.333+08:002011-08-10T13:11:22.333+08:00Yeah, we can't argue with that. It's just ...Yeah, we can't argue with that. It's just everybody dosen't like something, yet still do it, due to inertia, or fear to change.<br /><br />Public firms buy u.s. Bonds because they fear change, they can't try something different, deep inside they think u.s. Bond is 'not good'<br /><br />Ironically, while warren do the same, he think 'u.s.bonds is the safest currency in the world'. Wow, do the same action but with completely diffent reasons.<br /><br />As of my standpoint, of a everyday normal guy, think that u.s. bond 'face value' may sustain, but u.s. Currency will continue to drop, which means that any asset, linked to u.s., will shrink slowly. This is a 'slow kill'. I think both public and warren will get the harm eventually.<br /><br />If you are brillant in ' making money' but put your money in 'a bad place' it's of no use. I think the majority are placing money in the wrong place, i.e. In u.s. Currency.<br /><br />Well, nobody knows, and actually every currency is related to u.s., so let's see how things develop. Maybe we can revisit this blog 30 years later lolsMorpheushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03580071763141131511noreply@blogger.com