2011年8月9日 星期二

美國信貸評級一談

美國信貸評級被調低對亞洲股市影響最主要係投資(投機者)恐慌性拋售, 美國國債如巴菲特所講仍然係所有國家最安全既債券, 前美聯儲主席格林斯潘昨日電視都有回應, 美國既違約風險(唔還錢)係零, 因為佢可以不停印刷銀紙.

美國雖然負債龐大, 但係佢唔會咁快玩完, 佢好似個老人家, 雖然生產力大不如前, 但係潛力仍然有, 好多人仍然會同佢做生意. 你會發現有D國家債券仲係AAA級, 但係大部企業都係一口罵美國, 一手仍然大量買入美債, 全球大部份買國債既資金仍然不停流入美國.


另外如果你有仔細留意, 標準普爾(Standard & Poor's)首席執行官係共和黨人, 都有可能背後有政治目的, 不惜損害本土自尊打擊奧巴馬既民主黨.


今次既金融小風波, 提議可以買入宏利既環球基金 — 亞洲小型公司基金亞洲基金(Manulife Inv Asian Small Cap Fund), 佢已經下降左10%左右, 小型公司既特性係下跌後反彈既幅度比大型企業高好多. 真係好好既機會.


http://www.manulife.com.hk/_layouts/manulifedfp/en/FundList.aspx?fundcatid=5&buid=2

12 則留言:

  1. Yeah, we can't argue with that. It's just everybody dosen't like something, yet still do it, due to inertia, or fear to change.

    Public firms buy u.s. Bonds because they fear change, they can't try something different, deep inside they think u.s. Bond is 'not good'

    Ironically, while warren do the same, he think 'u.s.bonds is the safest currency in the world'. Wow, do the same action but with completely diffent reasons.

    As of my standpoint, of a everyday normal guy, think that u.s. bond 'face value' may sustain, but u.s. Currency will continue to drop, which means that any asset, linked to u.s., will shrink slowly. This is a 'slow kill'. I think both public and warren will get the harm eventually.

    If you are brillant in ' making money' but put your money in 'a bad place' it's of no use. I think the majority are placing money in the wrong place, i.e. In u.s. Currency.

    Well, nobody knows, and actually every currency is related to u.s., so let's see how things develop. Maybe we can revisit this blog 30 years later lols

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  2. About the point 'print cash to return momey, so zero defalt risk'.

    Actualy this is the key point for me to worry about u.s.future, market may be idiot in a short period of term, but it will corret itself over a long time horizon, no matter what.

    So when u.s. Keep printing money, u.s. Currency will depreciate no matter what happens, over a long enough time horizon.

    As we believe in 'value investment', we should also choose a 'value currency', a currency allow us to 'sleep well in a long time scale'

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  3. And i know warrren got no choice, because his asset are american firms, they generate u.s. Currency.
    But not for we, we can choose our currency. Choose wisely.

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  4. good point, but what is your alternative option, say if you have 90 billion cash? where will you put it?

    RMB? China is the biggest buyer of the US bond.

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  5. Yes, i know that.

    But the difference of rmb and usd is that, china, someday, can be strong enough to detach itself from the 'forced relationship' of usd.

    It's just like superior stocks underperform due to bad stocks climate, 'forced to relate itself with index' but will outperfrom after some critical point, if one is patient enough to wait.

    I think both of us agree that, 'forced relationship / control by nn natural means' can't stay long, and this is just the situation usd try to apply to the rest of currency in the world, include rmb.

    About the best currency in the world for business usage, must be 'stocks'. Of course, the general business world is not bright enough to use stocks as payment for transactions, but some firms are doing this. As evident for the term 'stocks mortgaged loan'.

    By the way, i have to admit that usd is the most popular currency in the world, but populr is not related to quality, and usually thr more popular something is, it will becme cheaper and cheper.

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  6. And some firms are doing acquisitions with 'exchange tocks'.

    For wrren not concern rating, only concern internal quality, rather than keep more cash or us bonds he should keep a higher ratio of stocks and do more business acquisition with stocks involved as currency.

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  7. With this so modern idea, we can try our later business payments done with stocks exchange, for example rather than i charge you some cash for future performance fee, i may just claim i will get a further certain percent of my fund.

    This will save your workload and currency exchange, while i will benefit from my fund rise ( i am very confident for that in the long run)

    See how the concept of 'money' changed? This must be something interesting to try!

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  8. maybe you are correct, but realistic is not as simple as you think.

    as a country (even hk), or a very large Inc. if you hold 90 billion cash, no company's stock can absorb that amount, then you will have to diversify to 1000+ company, how you going to explain to your shareholders?

    if you buy RMB, it is not a free trade currency yet, and there is no floating RMB cash for you to buy, unless you deal with the China government directly, but why would they sell it to you?

    the best option is still US bond, and all the trading is still mainly in USD, if you hold RMB then you will run into a lot of exchange rate problem, or you work with the 2% company that decide to switch to RMB now.

    in ideal world you are correct, in reality it is impossible.

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  9. Yes you are right for firms too large, like countries and bh.
    But for us, we have flexibility.

    Actually this situation is just the difference of some famous big funds and our funds!
    Our key edge is 'small but flexible'!

    And i know bh already acquiring companies with bh stocks.
    For us, we could break the 'frame' of currency to a higher extent!

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  10. correct, that's why i never worry about myself, hahaha.

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  11. And about future of u.s., i think it won't 'die', u.s. Got it's unique edge on tech and science manpower, should remain supremecy in these fields.

    I predict a decade later, it's situation will be similar as of japan now, still influenial, but financially it shinked a lot, like japan did 20 years ago.

    Japan relyed too much on financial means to deal wih internal economic problems.
    Seems u.s. Is on that dead-end track......

    Just hope china won't follow their bad example, at least not for this century lols

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  12. countries are like men, they have their life-time. US is at his old age while China is at his young age, China will "die" one day, but she will have different life than US.

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